AUGUSTA, ME – Supporters of same-sex marriage say they are confident that voters in Maine are ready to make the Pine Tree State the nation’s first to legalize marriage equality by popular referendum.
Although five states are expected to contain marriage equality questions on their November ballots, Maine is the only one where the initiative has been framed by supporters of the issue. In 2009, lawmakers approved a same-sex marriage bill that was signed into law by then-Gov. John Baldacci, a Democrat.
Baldacci, a Roman Catholic, became the first governor to sign a marriage equality law that had not been previously courtordered. That status was reversed less than six months later, when gay marriage was overturned 53-47 percent in a statewide referendum on Nov. 3, 2009.
In spite of that defeat, marriage equality advocates believe that the past three years have seen a drastic change in voter opinions, and have successfully petitioned to add the question to this November’s ballot.
Last week, Raleigh, North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling released the results of an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll of Maine voters that concerned the issue, with the following results reported:
“It looks like Maine voters will reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in the state this fall. 54% think that gay marriage should be legal to only 41% who think it should be illegal. And when we asked about the issue using the exact language voters will see on the ballot this fall, they say they’re inclined to support the referendum by a 47-32 margin.
There’s some indication that the exact ballot language is confusing people a little at this point. Only 67% of those who support gay marriage in general say they’ll vote yes while 12% say they’ll not and 21% are not sure. At the same time, just 60% of those who oppose gay marriage generally say they’ll vote against the proposed referendum, while 24% say they’ll vote for it and 16% are not sure. My guess is at the end of the day voters will see this as a straight referendum on gay marriage regardless of what the language on the ballot says — and the 54/41 number bodes well for pro-equality voters.
Republicans’ opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats’ support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin.”
